Short answer: We enter winter with a strong climate signal El Niño, but it does not in itself determine how much snow will occur in Central Europe. Seasonal models describe the likely deviations over months, not the weather for a specific weekend or cross-country ski resort.
Therefore, take the article as a guide to current signals, not as a ranking of places where the best snow will be sure. The background is constantly becoming obsolete; the summary below corresponds to the information available on 6 October 2026.
What the climate views show so far
The NOAA stated in its September overview that El Niño was intensifying and the likelihood of a very strong event in the northern hemisphere during the autumn and winter of 2026 / 2027 exceeded 90%. WMO also expected further intensification in the September to November outlook. It is an important global climate signal, not a direct forecast of European snow.
El Niño changes the distribution of ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and can influence atmospheric circulation even in remote areas. Its impact on Europe is however variable and depends also on other ocean and atmospheric processes. For Central Europe, the simple equation "stronger El Niño = warm winter" and "more precipitation = more snow" does not apply.
The seasonal forecasts of ECMWF and Copernicus work with the models of model calculations and probabilities. They indicate, for example, whether there is an increased chance of a warmer or wetter quarter in a given area. They cannot reliably determine whether it will snow on Zadov on January 17. ECMWF also points out that Europe is one of the less predictable regions of the seasonal scale in winter.
Why can there be rain in one part of the mountains and a little bit higher snow
Not only the amount of precipitation is essential for winter conditions, but also the temperature in the entire layer of air that the precipitation passes through. At a warm front, it can rain in a lower position, while in higher parts it snows. Moreover, the border between rain and snow changes over time and can move hundreds of high meters in one front.
Therefore, altitude is important but is not a guarantee. They also decide on exposure to slope, flow, local relief, night cooling and whether after snow comes rain or longer circling. In Šumava, the freezing boilers can cool significantly during bright nights; open ridges can be troubled by wind and rewinding.
What it means for Czech mountains
At this stage, it makes no sense to call a particular Czech mountain range "winter winner." It is more useful to distinguish between what local property can be an advantage if the weather situation is appropriate:
- Šumava: high positions and cold boilers can help to maintain snow in the appropriate weather. However, conditions may vary between Zadov, Zadov and Central Šumava.
- Krkonoše Mountains and Jeseníky: The highest parts are more colder due to altitude than the surrounding lowlands. But even there it is necessary to monitor the concrete forecast, wind and state of snow.
- Jizera and the Roughly Mountains: when the current is wet, the precipitation may be heavy. The temperature profile and current snow limits are decided by the wet snow or rain.
- Beskydy: their eastern position means different reactions to individual types of flow. Differences between cold episode and warm southwest flow can be significant.
These are general terrain and position characteristics, not forecast for winter 2026 / 2027.
Tatra and Alps: height helps, but does not give certainty
Higher Tater and Alps are more likely to have conditions for snow than the lower resorts. The north side of the Alps can catch rainfall in the north to west, while the south side and the Dolomites may be more dependent on the Mediterranean situation in winter. However, even in high centres, long-term seasonal views will not replace short-term forecast and current snow coverage.
What about the polar vortex?
Research examines the link between El Niña, the stratospheric polar vortex and the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). These processes can contribute to changing the flow in Europe, but their specific impact varies from one case to another. The SSW cannot be reliably timed several months in advance; their development is only meaningful during winter.
How to make a decision when winter begins
- Watch the short-term forecast. A view of several days is more useful for the weekend plan than the seasonal map.
- Check the snow directly in the area. Follow the current reports of the rolbarians, the webcam and the date of the last update.
- Be flexible. After a heavy snow, great conditions can be only a short time before the weather changes.
- Read the height together with the weather. The altitude itself, or the total amount of precipitation, will not tell us if the trail will be skillable.
What do you take from the view?
Winter 2026 / 2027 is particularly climate interesting due to the expected strong El Niña. However, from the global signals available, it is not possible to promise snow in the Czech Republic, to determine the best month or predict the specific conditions in individual areas. Differences between low and high location can be crucial and seasonal views will change with new data.
For cross-country skippers, it will be most practical to combine a forecast for several days with local reports on track modification, webcams and fresh reports. When the conditions are really within reach, you will also find them in the overview of the areas on vestope.cz.
Resources and further reading
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, September 10, 2026
- NOAA: official view Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)
- WMO: Global Seasonal Climate Update, September-November 2026
- ECMWF: As models predict the possible development of winter weather in Europe
- Domeisen et al.: seasonal weather predictability in Europe and El Niña's relationship to the stratosphere
Update: 6 October 2026. Seasonal climate projections express the probability for a longer period; it is not a weather forecast or snow conditions in a particular centre.